A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
